Emanuel RendasIndependent property advisor in Dubai · 02 / 05

Every position arrives with its downside written next to it.

Two or three positions, never a flood of listings. Each one comes with the same four pieces of evidence, so you can compare them on the same terms.

A

Registered comparables

Registered transactions for comparable homes, as the basis for the price you pay.

B

Net yield after service charges

Purchase costs and service charges come off before any yield is shown.

C

Developer record and escrow standing

Before any off-plan recommendation: the project's escrow registration, its construction record and its service-charge history.

D

A modelled downside case

Your position stress-tested against a rate rise and a flat market, not just the base case.

The evidence, filed as exhibits.

Each exhibit carries its source, period, definition and update date. The supplied official exports are checked; the sales/rental window and older project snapshot are dated separately.

Territory · Satellite / 3D

Inspect the four areas in 3D.

Satellite view loads when this map enters view.

Mapbox satellite and 3D terrain; imagery dates vary by location. Approximate area centres, not administrative boundaries or individual-property valuations. A: Palm Jumeirah; B: Palm Jebel Ali; C: Burj Khalifa; D: Madinat Al Mataar. Open the full 3D inspection ↗ Open Dubai in Google Maps ↗
Exhibit 1 · Registered salesDLD export · calculated

What sold, and at what price?

Median AED per sqft; the line spans the middle half of registered sales. Ready and off-plan together. Area evidence, not a valuation of your unit.

Median25th–75th percentile
APalm Jumeirah

Unit and villa records together; this sample is predominantly units.

AED 3,5591,112 sales · 2,370–5,247
BPalm Jebel Ali

DLD name: Palm Jabal Ali. Registered unit sales; no villa sales in this filtered sample.

AED 3,508410 sales · 3,375–3,741
CDowntown · DLD Burj Khalifa

DLD area Burj Khalifa only. DIFC is not merged into this statistic.

AED 2,9832,550 sales · 2,320–3,852
DDubai South · DLD Madinat Al Mataar

Administrative area Madinat Al Mataar; broader than any single Dubai South project.

AED 1,64515,919 sales · 1,432–1,869

Common scale: 0–6,000 AED per sqft

Calculation and sample limits

Residential Unit/Villa records in the Sales group, procedures Sell, Sell - Pre registration and Delayed Sell. Positive finite actual_worth and procedure_area. AED/sqft = actual_worth ÷ procedure_area in m² × 0.09290304. Deduplicated by transaction_id. No winsorisation. Mixture of property sizes and projects can move the area median.

These are historical registered prices in the supplied exports. They do not guarantee today's achievable price or complete coverage of every transaction.

Source
DLD via Dubai Data, exports supplied by Emanuel. Calculated 7 October 2026.
Period
1 October 2025–30 September 2026
Metric
Median and quartiles of eligible residential registered sales; ready/off-plan breakdown available on the area map.
Last update
Export files dated 6 October 2026
Classification
Indicative · own calculation from official records
Exhibit 2 · Project registerHistorical snapshot · 15 Jun 2026

What is recorded in active projects?

Registered units + villas in projects marked ACTIVE, grouped by the recorded expected end year. Same scale in each panel. This is a dated register, not a current delivery forecast.

Palm Jumeirah
1,3142026
2822027
1652028
02029
02030

18 active project records
2,379 units + villas filed
Unallocated: 618 · end date missing or before snapshot

Palm Jebel Ali
02026
02027
02028
02029
02030

9 active project records
0 units + villas filed
Unallocated: 0 · end date missing or before snapshot

Zero units/villas filed in these ACTIVE records. Land plots are excluded. This does not mean zero future supply.

Downtown · DLD Burj Khalifa
1,7532026
1,9052027
02028
02029
02030

16 active project records
5,403 units + villas filed
Unallocated: 1,745 · end date missing or before snapshot

Dubai South · DLD Madinat Al Mataar
2262026
2,5122027
2,0792028
1,4882029
02030

42 active project records
16,954 units + villas filed
Unallocated: 10,649 · end date missing or before snapshot

Common scale: 0–3,000 registered units + villas

What this register can and cannot establish

Only ACTIVE projects. FINISHED, NOT_STARTED, PENDING, CONDITIONAL_ACTIVATING and FRIEZED are excluded. project_end_date is the expected end date; missing dates and dates before 15 June 2026 are unallocated. Counts are no_of_units + no_of_villas; land plots and buildings are not added. Unit usage is not supplied here, so this is not a residential-only pipeline. No delay estimate, absorption ratio or risk score is inferred.

Source
DLD via Dubai Data, exports supplied by Emanuel. Calculated 7 October 2026.
Period
Register load_timestamp: 15 June 2026. File export: 6 July 2026.
Metric
Filed units + villas in ACTIVE projects; expected project_end_date year. The underlying counts include any unit usages recorded in the register.
Last update
15 June 2026 · older than the sales/rent exports
Classification
Indicative · own aggregation of official registry fields

DLD legal-entity records are included in each dossier. Registry snapshot: 1 October 2026; project links: 15 June 2026. Brand names and legal entities can differ.

The developers I am asked about, and what I check.

Reference onlyA name here is not a partnership or an endorsement.
The case against

Every advisor will show you the case for Dubai. I also give you the case against it, the same briefing I give a client before they commit capital.

Read the case against →
REDACTED DOSSIER EXHIBIT · ILLUSTRATIVE SPECIMEN MANDATE #IC-2026-08

How a mandate is judged before capital is committed.

Promises of independence are easy to write. Below is a redacted Investment Committee Note for an illustrative AED 18.5M waterfront evaluation — demonstrating advisory underwriting methodology and why the recommendation was not to proceed at the developer's asking price.

01 · Mandate Context MANDATE

Allocation & Hold Strategy

European private investor · AED 18.5M illustrative allocation into an off-plan branded waterfront residence · 5-year hold requiring clean secondary exit liquidity.

02 · Evidence Reviewed [DLD HISTORICAL SAMPLE · ADVISORY ANALYSIS]

Market & Pipeline Comparables

Asking price of AED 4,850/sqft benchmarked against 12-month registered Palm Jumeirah apartment median of AED 3,559/sqft (n=1,112; P25–P75: AED 2,370–5,247/sqft) and 18 active competing project records (2,379 units filed in June 2026 register).

03 · Downside & Stress Case [MODELLED SCENARIO]

Yield & Handover Stress

Entry ask carries a 36% premium over the area overall median (which includes older/unbranded stock) and 14% over turnkey shoreline comparables. After 4% DLD and AED 28/sqft service charges, yield after service charges compresses to 4.1% (excluding management, vacancy and maintenance). Under this scenario, a -12% capital adjustment at handover represents roughly 3 years of modelled income.

04 · Advisory Verdict [DO NOT PROCEED AT ASK]

Written Recommendation

Recommendation issued in writing: decline off-plan release at AED 4,850/sqft; reallocate capital to two ready, supply-constrained secondary positions with immediate Ejari cash flow.

Earlier market context · archived August 2026 figures

Archived context. These earlier figures have not been reconciled to the supplied exports and must not be treated as the current market. Use the dated exhibits above.

The Market Case

Why serious capital
is moving to Dubai.

Not sentiment. Structure. These four are written into law and geography — they do not depend on a market cycle. Verified 3 August 2026.

0%
Property & capital gains tax
By UAE federal law — structural, not temporary
10yr
Golden Visa residency
Qualifying purchases from AED 2M
4hr
Flight radius
Europe, Middle East, Africa and India in reach
5.8M
Residents by 2040
Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan — official target
Start a private conversation
Dubai Against the World

The same million dollars
buys very different things.

Every figure below carries its source. Where a number could not be verified against an institutional publication, it is not shown. Current as at August 2026.

Knight Frank Wealth Report 2026
62.2
square metres of prime property per USD 1 million
Dubai ranks fifth globally on this measure — roughly 3.9× the space Monaco delivers, 2.8× Hong Kong, and close to double London. The report is the reference document family offices and private banks use when diversifying internationally.
Dubai 62.2 m²
London ~31 m²
Hong Kong ~22 m²
Monaco ~16 m²

Dubai figure published directly by Knight Frank. Comparators derived from the multiples stated in the same report.

DubaiUAE
Gross yield6.5 — 7%
Foreign buyer entry tax4% DLD
Capital gains tax0%
Tax on rental income0%
Annual property taxNone
Residency via purchase10 yr from AED 2M
SingaporeSG
Gross yield3 — 5%
Foreign buyer entry tax60% ABSD
Capital gains taxGenerally none
Tax on rental incomeApplies
Annual property taxYes
Residency via purchaseNo route
Hong KongHK
Gross yield2 — 3%
Space per USD 1M~22 m²
Capital gains taxGenerally none
Tax on rental incomeApplies
Annual holding costUSD 15 — 25K
Residency via purchaseNo route
LondonUK
Gross yield2 — 4%
Space per USD 1M~31 m²
Capital gains taxApplies to non-residents
Tax on rental incomeApplies
Annual property taxCouncil tax
Residency via purchaseNo route
New YorkUSA
Gross yield2 — 4%
Capital gains taxFederal + state
Tax on rental incomeApplies
Annual property taxYes
Estate tax exposureNon-residents from USD 60K
Residency via purchaseNo route
MonacoMC
Space per USD 1M~16 m²
Capital gains taxNone for residents
Tax on rental incomeNone for residents
Entry thresholdHighest globally
Residency via purchaseDeposit + residence
LiquidityThin, trophy only
What this comparison does not tell you

Tax treatment depends on your own residency and citizenship, not on the property alone. A US citizen is taxed on worldwide income wherever the asset sits. Several countries tax foreign property holdings regardless of where they are. Nothing here is tax advice — I introduce clients to specialists before any cross-border purchase.

Yield alone is also the wrong lens. London and New York offer depth, legal maturity and currency diversification that Dubai does not yet match. The honest case for Dubai is a specific combination — space per dollar, income, zero domestic tax, and a residency route — not superiority on every axis.

Sources: Knight Frank Wealth Report 2026; Dubai Land Department; published yield surveys, August 2026.

Market Intelligence

The numbers serious
investors study first.

Verified against Dubai Land Department releases. Current as of 3 August 2026. Every figure below carries its source — if I cannot source it, I do not publish it.

AED 286B

H1 2026 sales value

Dubai recorded AED 286.43 billion in property sales across 86,005 transactions in the first half of 2026 — the second strongest first half in the emirate's history, behind only H1 2025. Source: Dubai Land Department, July 2026.

-12%

Year-on-year, and why it matters

H1 2026 sits roughly 12% below H1 2025's AED 326.6 billion. This is moderation after an exceptional run, not deterioration. I show you the direction of travel rather than only the flattering number — you are entitled to both. Source: DLD via W Capital H1 2026 report.

AED 140B

Off-plan share of the market

Off-plan sales reached AED 139.75 billion across 58,840 transactions in H1 2026, against AED 146.69 billion completed-property sales across 27,160 transactions. Off-plan carries the volume; completed stock carries the value. Source: Dubai Land Department, July 2026.

120K+

Units scheduled for handover

Approximately 120,000 residential units are scheduled for delivery across Dubai in 2026, with Fitch having flagged a possible 10–15% correction in oversupplied segments. Prime, supply-constrained addresses have historically behaved differently from volume districts — but no advisor should present this pipeline as anything other than the central risk to model. Sources: Fitch Ratings; Property Monitor.

Verified — official source Indicative — registered transactions, range Forecast — assumption stated, may not occur

Last verified 3 August 2026 · Hover or tap any underlined figure for its source

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